$URA Money Flow Analysis: Bullish Put Selling and 2.7x Volume Spike Signal Bounce — Key Technical Levels and Trade Plan

$URA — 10-Day Options Money Flow (09/22 → 10/06)

Net flow: +$4.1M, 88% bullish share — but the character is premium-collection, not call-buying.

Key readings:

• Put-sold dominance is the story: $4.55M puts sold vs only $401K puts bought across the range. Institutions were selling puts into the 10/01 low = they're willing to own there and don't expect further downside — a classic floor-building reversal signal.
• 10/01 was the inflection day: $3.6M net bullish, single-trade $1.13M sweep put sold, plus $2.32M of block put selling across 7 trades with a 96% repeat share — systematic, repeated selling at the same strikes, not a one-off.
• Block-dominant (~29% sweep share range-wide): institutional/defensive positioning rather than speculative urgency. strongSweepNet stayed near zero except the +$155K print on 10/01.
• Last two sessions went quiet (+$32K, +$36K) — the big conviction play was placed and not added to.

Volume — what's going on

Tuesday 10/06 printed 8.73M shares vs a 3.19M average — roughly 2.7x normal, and the heaviest session of the past 30 — on a +4% up candle ($40.19 → $41.80). That's the first major accumulation print of the entire pullback, landing right where the put-sellers were positioning. One caveat: it closed well off the $42.46 high, so there was real two-way trade into the close. Today's (Wed 10/07) session hasn't opened yet — latest data is as of the 10/06 close.

Today's Technical Picture

Bias: Neutral — counter-trend bounce inside a bearish structure (Confidence: Medium) Regime: Trending (bearish EMA order intact), early bounce attempt

• Price & Trend: Closed at $41.80, reclaiming EMA8/EMA13 ($40.72/$41.12) and testing EMA21 ($41.78) — but the EMA stack remains perfectly bearish-ordered (8 < 13 < 21 < 34 < 55 < 89) and price sits below SMA50/100/200 ($43.28/$44.28/$48.12) and below the Ichimoku cloud.
• Key Signals:
  • RSI 48.4 rising from 40.0; MACD still negative but histogram contracting sharply (-0.06 from -0.41) — downside momentum nearly spent.
  • 8.73M volume (2.7x avg) on an up candle — first volume confirmation of the bounce.
  • Structure still LH/LL from the $48.32 high (09/08) to $38.89 (10/01); this is a bounce, not a confirmed reversal.
  • Weekly context: sitting on rising weekly SMA100 (~$40.61) as support, but below declining weekly SMA50 ($47.60) — weekly downtrend since June intact.
• Confluence: Resistance cluster $42.1–$44.0 (Bollinger middle $42.12, EMA34 $42.45, SMA50 $43.28, Kijun $43.61, Keltner top $43.97). Support $40.7–$41.1 (EMA8/13, Tenkan $40.68), then swing lows $38.89–$39.57.
• Trade Plan:
  • IF price reclaims and holds above $42.50–$44.00 on volume → targets $45.13 (Senkou Span A) then $46.45 (Bollinger top); stop below $40.60.
  • IF rejected at the $42.5–$44.0 cluster → back to $40.70; a close below $39.57 negates the bounce and reopens $38.89, then $37.78.
• Latest data as of: Tuesday, 06 October 2026

Bottom line: The flow and the tape agree — heavy institutional put-selling into the 10/01 low, now validated by a 2.7x-volume bounce candle. But until $42.5–$44.0 (EMA34/SMA50/Kijun cluster) is reclaimed, this is a counter-trend rally within a bearish daily and weekly structure, not a confirmed trend reversal.