TMDX Money Flow Analysis: Call Selling Ceiling at $95 Flips to Bullish Sweeps

Here's my money flow analysis for $TMDX (Transmedics Group) — combining the 10-day options flow series (8/7–8/21), today's strike/expiration walls, per-trade sweeps, and technical confirmation.

Money Flow Overview (8/7 – 8/21)

• Range snapshot: Net -$1.13M — 74.8% bearish ($1.71M) vs 25.2% bullish ($576K). In a $2.34B cap name, that's meaningful, not noise.
• The dominant cell: Call selling ($1.71M) — sweeps ($831K) + blocks ($879K). Zero put buying. This is premium-collection / bearish-reversal character: institutions collecting premium, capping upside, betting price does not run through their strikes.
• Execution style: Sweeps $1.31M vs blocks $978K (~57% sweep share) — urgency was present on both sides. Repeat share hit 90–100% on the heaviest call-selling days (8/7, 8/14, 8/19) — that was systematic, repeated sell-side accumulation, not one-offs.

The Critical Flip — Last Two Days

The trend is where the signal is, and it flipped:

• 8/19: Peak bearish — $412K of sweeps + blocks sold straight into the $94–95 high. That's the ceiling trade.
• 8/20 – 8/21: 100% bullish both days — urgent sweep call buying ($30K, then $90K), strongSweepNet turned positive after days at zero.

Per-trade detail (8/21):

Both are long-dated, OTM upside bets above spot — bullish continuation positioning, not hedging. Largest wall today = $100C (magnet strike); $120C secondary. Size vs OI (50/734, 11/111) suggests adds to existing positions rather than brand-new opens.

Technical Confirmation (Reversal Check)

The call-selling (bearish-reversal) signal was consistent with the chart — this is the unified read:

• Daily (as of Fri 8/21): Uptrend intact — higher highs/lows off the late-July $71–76 base, close $94.77 above the full bullish EMA stack (EMA8 $90.54 → EMA55 $81.73), MACD expanding (+0.83 histogram), RSI 68 (strength in a trend, not exhaustion). Price is pressing the upper Bollinger ($97.29) and above Keltner top — expansion regime.
• Weekly (as of week 8/17): The big picture is a recovery rally inside a larger downtrend. Price closed $94.77, sitting right on weekly SMA200 = $94.80 — the single biggest resistance level on the weekly chart. Below SMA50 ($107.82) and the Ichimoku Kijun ($105.55), but above the cloud's upper edge, weekly MACD histogram improving (+3.59) from deeply negative.

Synthesis: The $1.7M of call-selling built the ceiling exactly where technicals say the ceiling is — weekly SMA200 at ~$95. The chart confirms the bearish-reversal flow: institutions were selling calls into strong resistance. But the last two days' sweep call buying (long-dated $100C/$120C) is the counter-narrative — fresh money betting through that resistance, i.e., a breakout continuation bet.

Bottom line: Snapshot says 75% bearish, but the trend says the money is turning. Bearish call-selling dominated into the $95 weekly SMA200 wall; the last two sessions flipped to urgent bullish sweeps at OTM strikes above it. Daily momentum confirms the rally; the weekly resistance/recovery tension is the key battleground — the 8/19 call-selling side wins if $95–97 holds, the 8/20–8/21 sweep buyers win on a decisive weekly close above ~$95.

Note: fundamental data on file is 52 days stale (7/1/2026) — market cap $2.34B, short float 23% (squeeze-prone), beta 1.88. Treat balance-sheet metrics as approximate.