$TEM Tempus AI Deep Review: Blow-Off Top Reversal, Bearish Daily Bias, and Key Levels at $73.41 and $66–$67

I'll pull the full data set on $TEM — fundamentals, daily## $TEM — Tempus AI | Deep Review Latest data as of: Monday, 12 October 2026 | Latest daily candle print $68.28 | TEM is on the platform's focus watchlist (actively monitored for unusual activity/setups)

Note: Fundamental data is 22 days old (last updated Sunday, 20 September 2026). Some metrics (price-target-relative, short float, earnings-date proximity) may have shifted since then.

Company Snapshot (Fundamentals)

Size: Market cap $14.05B; float 107.73M shares; 175.02M shares outstanding. Valuation: Trailing P/E 0 (no meaningful earnings); forward P/E 2008.77 — a pure growth/story multiple, not interpretable on a standard earnings basis; relative valuation commentary skipped given data staleness. Risk: Beta 3.53 (extreme market sensitivity), daily ATR $4.94, short float 27.35% (>20% = squeeze-risk territory). Ownership: Insider ownership 40.3% — very high management alignment. Earnings: Date shown (Jul 30) looks stale — verify timing independently. Context: Healthcare / Health Information Services, USA. A high-beta, heavily-shorted, insider-heavy small/mid-cap name — options premium here is far more actionable per-dollar than a mega-cap.

Daily Technicals — Bias: Bearish (Confidence: Medium)

Regime: Expansion/Volatile — Bollinger ($88.49 / $63.45) sits outside Keltner ($81.05 / $65.52) on both sides, ATR $5.40 (~7.9% of price) and rising since Sep 30. Momentum continuation is trusted; bands are targets, not reversal signals.

Price & Trend: A parabolic Aug→Sep advance (Aug 31 $63.05 → Sep 28 high $86.44) ran into a violent blow-off. The defining candle is Oct 6: open $84.96, high $87.99, low $71.34, close $71.98 — a massive bearish outside/reversal bar on 16.56M shares (2x average) that engulfed the entire prior week's range. Price has since chopped and is making lower closes ($83.55 → $71.98 → … → $68.28). It now sits below the EMA8/13/21/34 cluster ($72.72 / $73.82 / $73.28 / $70.82) but still above EMA55 ($67.07) and SMA50 ($66.09).

Key Signals:

• MACD histogram negative and expanding for five straight sessions (+0.14 → −0.18 → −0.88 → −1.42 → −1.80 → −1.87 → −2.03). Rate of change is accelerating bearish, not stabilizing.
• RSI 44.93, down from 72.60 (Sep 28) and 64.37 (Oct 5) — momentum lost the 50 line with no oversold cushion.
• Ichimoku has rolled over: price below Tenkan ($77.35) and Kijun ($73.41) — the Kijun is now the gatekeeper. Price still holds above the cloud (Senkou A $61.62 / B $56.87).
• Structure is lower-highs: the $87.99 Oct 6 rejection is the swing high; every rally since ($73.09, $72.96) has been sold. Distribution pattern.
• Failed breakout above the Bollinger top ($91.51 on Oct 5) — a trap that now acts as supply.

Confluence: Resistance cluster $72.72–$73.82 (EMA8/13/21 + Kijun + Tenkan confluence overhead). Support cluster $66.09–$67.07 (EMA55 + SMA50), then $65.52 (Keltner bottom), then $63.45–$63.48 (Bollinger bottom), with deeper support at $58.56–$56.87 (SMA100 + Senkou B).

Trade Plan (stock levels): Bearish while below $73.41 (Kijun) — invalidation is a daily close back above the $73–$74 EMA cluster, which reopens $78–$80. Downside objective $66–$67 first, then $65.52, then $63.45. Long setups only become viable if $66–$67 holds and price reclaims the Kijun on a close.

Weekly Technicals — Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish (Confidence: Medium) | Weekly wins over daily where they conflict

Regime: Expansion — Bollinger top $83.03 outside Keltner top $78.59; ATR $10.55 rising. Large directional weekly ranges dominate.

Price & Trend: The secular structure off the summer base (Aug 10 week close $52.10) is still intact — price holds above weekly SMA50 ($58.86) and SMA100 ($60.49), and the weekly EMA stack (8 $69.74 > 13 $66.53 > 21 $63.21 > 34 $61.23 > 55 $60.26 > 89 $58.08) remains bullishly stacked. But the Oct 5 week printed a bearish weekly outside bar (open $76.68, high $87.99, low $66.71, close $70.93) — a rejection candle after a parabolic run — and price has now lost weekly EMA8 and dipped inside the weekly cloud (Senkou A $60.44 / B $71.67).

Key Signals:

• Weekly bearish RSI divergence: price made a higher weekly high Oct 5 ($87.99 vs Sep 21 $85.46) while RSI made a lower high (55.59 vs 65.24) — the strongest bearish warning on this timeframe. RSI has now faded five weeks running (65.24 → 59.30 → 55.59 → 53.90).
• Weekly MACD histogram contracting for three weeks (3.60 → 3.39 → 2.71 → 1.94) — momentum no longer confirming the advance.
• Weekly close $68.28 is below Tenkan ($69.22) — short-term weekly momentum has rolled.

Caution: 30 weekly candles (~7 months) is not multi-year context; treat the "secular bull" claim as limited to the visible window.

Money Flow — Sep 28 → Oct 12 (11 sessions)

Range totals (snapshot): Net premium −$89.5K | Bullish share 49.7%, bearish 50.3% (ratio 0.99). Balanced on the surface — but the composition is the story.

Reversal character — premium collection dominant on BOTH sides: Calls sold $6.67M vs calls bought $5.25M (ceiling bet), and puts sold $2.60M vs puts bought $1.26M (floor bet). Institutions are net sellers of premium — they expect the price to stop moving, not continue. This is a contrarian reversal signal, and it aligns exactly with the technical picture of a blown-off top now consolidating.

Trend direction: Early series was clearly bullish — Sep 29 net +$1.52M at 74% bullish with strongSweepNet +$1.70M (the single biggest urgent bullish day). It flipped from Oct 6 onward: Oct 6 −$194K (52.8% bearish), Oct 7 −$299K (57.2% bearish), Oct 8 −$371K (60.1% bearish), Oct 12 −$52.9K (100% bearish). The last four sessions lean bearish — the trend is deteriorating.

Conviction quality: Sweeps $7.16M vs blocks $8.62M — block-leaning overall = negotiated/institutional, defensive character rather than speculative.

Urgency character (sweepShare): Sporadic and spiking — 0.83 (Sep 29), 0.04 (Sep 30), 0.48 (Oct 1), 0.14 (Oct 5), 0.31 (Oct 6), 0.42 (Oct 7), 0.70 (Oct 8), 0.17 (Oct 9), 1.00 (Oct 12, one trade). Fits a name being pushed around by episodic players, not steady accumulation.

Accumulation character (repeatShare): Elevated early — 0.67 (Sep 29), 0.26 (Oct 1) — systematic accumulation at the highs that is now underwater. Falling thereafter (Oct 9 0.09) = one-off trades dominating.

Key inflection points: (1) Sep 30 — blockCallSold $1.74M into strength, just ahead of the Oct 6 reversal (smart money capping the top). (2) Oct 5–6 — the outside-bar reversal coincided exactly with the flow flipping net-bearish. (3) Oct 12 — only one trade: a single $79 strike call SOLD for $52.9K, a bearish-reversal print (ceiling above $79).

Snapshot-vs-trend reconciliation: Snapshot is 50/50 (stale positioning), but the last 3–4 days read 57–100% bearish with sold-premium dominant. The TREND is the signal: current momentum is bearish.

Strike / Expiration Walls (Oct 12 flow, spot $68.28)

Thin data — only one aggregated flow row: $79C exp Oct 23 (11 DTE), $52.9K, bearish (sold call). The only structure today is a ceiling marker above spot at $79. No meaningful bullish wall. Read alongside the sold-call dominance from the range: the overhead is being defended.

Analyst Consensus

Neutral: 1 bullish / 0 bearish / 1 neutral across 2 ratings in the last 30 days. No consensus drift.

• Guggenheim reiterates Buy, PT raised to $92 from $65 (+41.5%) — Oct 1 (the strongest signal in the set).
• Goldman Sachs initiates at Neutral, PT $75 — Sep 21. Caveat: ratings are lagging. The +41.5% PT hike landed Oct 1 — into the exact top that then reversed — and both targets sit far above the current $68.28. The street is positioned up-and-to-the-right while price breaks down.

Net Take

Daily is bearish (expansion regime, expanding negative MACD histogram, below the EMA cluster, Kijun $73.41 as the lid). Weekly still structurally bullish but flashing a bearish RSI divergence and a bearish outside-bar reversal week. Money flow reconciles it: institutions are net-selling premium on both sides — a ceiling bet (calls sold $6.67M) and a floor bet (puts sold $2.60M) — i.e., range-bound/choppy, not trending.

The pivot is $73.41 (daily Kijun / EMA13). Below it, downside opens to $66–$67 (EMA55/SMA50), then $65.52 (Keltner bottom), then $63.45 (Bollinger bottom). A daily close back above the $73–$74 EMA cluster invalidates the bear case and reopens $78–$80. Watch $66–$67 as the level that decides whether the weekly trend reasserts or the daily breakdown extends — and watch the $79 call-selling as the defined ceiling.

The chart makes the setup self-evident: the parabolic run into $86–$88, the Oct 6 outside-bar reversal that engulfed the range, and price now pinned between the EMA8/21 cluster overhead ($72–$74) and the EMA55/SMA50 shelf below ($66–$67) — a classic distribution/consolidation box after a blow-off, exactly matching the flow's "ceiling-and-floor" read.