RKLB Technical Analysis: Bearish as Bounce Unwinds, Key Support at $71.45

Here's my technical read on $RKLB (daily + weekly).

Bias: Bearish (Medium) — bounce failing, corrective downtrend intact

Regime: Expansion (both daily & weekly plotted)

Latest data as of Friday, 21 August 2026 (daily). Weekly as of Monday, 17 August.

Price & Trend $RKLB bounced violently off its $58.20 July low up to ~$82–$86 by 8/7–8/17, but that bounce is now unwinding. Three straight red candles took it from $82.08 → $72.57 (a ~11.6% pullback), and Friday closed at $72.57 near its $71.45 low. Price sits below the entire daily EMA stack (EMA8 $76.21 → EMA89 $83.82) and, critically, just under the weekly SMA50 ($75.44) — the institutional trend line. This is a downtrend retest, not a trend change.

Key Signals

• MA positioning: price below all daily EMAs, SMA50 ($82.05), SMA100 ($90.52); weekly close below SMA50 ($75.44) = weak institutional posture.
• Momentum rolling over: daily RSI fell from ~55 (8/17) to 43.16; MACD histogram is +0.44 and still positive, but the pullback is compressing it — the relief rally's momentum is fading.
• Ichimoku: price right at Kijun ($72.52) with the daily cloud far overhead (Senkou A $88.47 / B $108.50) — heavy upside supply. On weekly, price is below the cloud (Span A $75.15 / B $57.15).
• Volume: Friday dumped on only 12.4M vs 18.7M avg — a low-volume breakdown, suggesting weak demand, not panic (mild bullish nuance, hence Medium not High conviction).
• Weekly MACD: still bearish (line −0.73 vs signal +3.59), so the weekly timeframe confirms the correction — weekly wins over daily on disagreement.

Confluence

• Resistance cluster: $75–$77 = daily Keltner middle $76.48 + EMA8/13/21 ($76.21/$76.25/$76.48) + weekly SMA50 proximity. Reclaim here stalls upside.
• Support cluster: $71.45 (Friday low) → $67 (Keltner bottom) → $58–$60 (the July base). Below $67, the bounce fully unwinds.

Patterns

• 8/21: large down candle closing near the low → bearish momentum/continuation in expansion regime.

Trade Plan

• IF price holds below $75–$77 and breaks $71.45 on a daily close → bearish continuation; target $67, then $60–$58. Momentum regime says don't fade; the trend is down.
• Invalidation / bearish thesis breaks on a daily close back above $76.50–$77 (Keltner middle / EMA21). A decisive close back above $82 would revive the bounce to challenge $85–$88.
• R/R note: the trade down to $67 vs stop above $77 is ~1:1.4, so it's marginal — the cleaner short only exists on a confirmed break of $71 with a tight stop, or triggered from the $75–$77 supply zone.

The picture mirrors $BABA's profile: a high-momentum name finishing an oversold bounce, now breaking down through its MAs back into a bearish-to-neutral posture. Weekly trend stays down until price reclaims and holds the weekly $75–$77 zone.