$CRWV — CoreWeave Inc. | Full Quant Report

Data freshness note: Fundamental data is 8 days old (last updated Wednesday, 23 September 2026). Metrics like short float and earnings timing may have shifted since. Options flow, TA and ratings are current as of Thursday, 01 October 2026. $CRWV is on the platform's focus watchlist — actively monitored for unusual activity.

1. Company Snapshot & Fundamentals (as of 23 Sep 2026)

Size — Market cap $49.64B; shares outstanding 457.00M; float 370.25M. Valuation — P/E 0.00 (not meaningful — no positive earnings). Relative-valuation commentary skipped given data staleness. Risk — Beta 7.42 (extreme — >4x market volatility); short float 15.01% (heavily shorted — squeeze-capable); ATR $5.61 (daily). Ownership — Insider ownership 32.87% — strong management skin in the game. Earnings — Date shown Aug 11 AMC looks stale — verify timing independently.

2. Daily Technicals — Latest data as of: Thursday, 01 October 2026

Bias: Neutral (Confidence: Medium) Regime: Ranging — EMAs flat/entangled (EMA8 $86.88 ≈ EMA21 $86.75), price oscillating $79–$92. Oscillators trusted, trend indicators distrusted.

Price & Trend — Closed at $88.57 (Oct 1), above SMA50 $86.53, below SMA200 $92.19 / SMA100 $92.75 — transitional. Failed spike to $104.59 (Sep 8), flush to $79.88 (Sep 17), now grinding back through the middle of the range.

Key Signals

• RSI 52.4 — dead neutral, no oscillator edge mid-range.
• MACD −0.18 vs signal −0.53, histogram +0.35 and expanding 3 straight days (+0.18 → +0.23 → +0.35) — momentum repairing.
• Price above Tenkan ($86.02) but below Kijun ($91.43) and below the cloud (Senkou A $94.69 / B $91.28) — Ichimoku still bearish overhead.
• Bollinger top $95.92 vs Keltner top $95.29 — mild expansion, not a squeeze.
• Volume 20.4M vs 29.75M avg — below-average on the up day; rally lacks fuel.

Confluence

• Resistance: $89.9–$92.8 (EMA89 $89.87 + Kijun $91.43 + SMA200 $92.19 + SMA100 $92.75 + prior swing highs $90.91–91.12) — the dense zone.
• Support: $86.5–$86.9 (EMA8/13/21 cluster + Bollinger mid $86.65 + SMA50 $86.53); deeper $83.5–$84.5 (Sep 28 low $83.53, Oct 1 low $84.50).

Trade Plan

• IF daily close > $91.43 → long bias; stop below $88.88; target $95.92 (Bollinger top), extension $100.58 (Sep 9 high) — ~1:3 to the extension.
• IF daily close < $86.50 → short bias; stop above $88.88; targets $83.53 → $79.16 → $77.39 (Bollinger bottom) — ~1:3.
• Between $86.50 and $91.43: no edge — stay flat.

3. Weekly Technicals — Latest data as of: Monday, 28 September 2026 (current week built through Oct 1)

Bias: Neutral (Confidence: Medium) Regime: Ranging / contracting coil. Weekly EMAs stacked bearishly (EMA21 $89.99 → EMA55 $94.94); price closed below EMA21–55 all month. MISSING: sma100, sma200, ema89 (0.00) — limited listing history reduces secular context; confidence adjusted.

Price & Trend — Week of 9/28 closed at $88.57, below declining SMA50 ($92.09) = bearish institutional posture, though above EMA8/13. Big picture: parabolic run to $138.25 (April) → collapse to $60.55 (late July) → V-bounce to $117.49 (Aug 10, earnings week) → seven weeks of contracting range.

Key Signals

• Lower weekly highs since Aug 10: $117.49 → $109.90 → $104.59 → $91.12 → $90.47; higher lows since Sep 14: $78.27 → $80.92 → $83.53 — converging triangle.
• Weekly MACD −2.55 vs signal −2.44, histogram −0.11: bearish impulse nearly exhausted — histogram collapsed from −4.07 (late July) toward zero. A flip positive would be a major signal; not yet.
• Weekly RSI 49.0 — no momentum edge.
• Below weekly cloud (Senkou A $96.90 / B $110.26), below Kijun $99.40.
• Weekly ATR $16.79 (~19% of price) — size positions to this, stops must respect it.

Confluence — Resistance $92–$97 (SMA50 $92.09 + Tenkan $93.69 + Senkou A $96.90); Support $78.27–$83.53 (Sep swing lows), then $67–$71 (weekly Bollinger lower $66.95, July closes).

Trade Plan

• IF weekly close > $92–93 → targets Kijun $99.40, then $104.59; invalidation on weekly close back below EMA21 $89.99.
• IF weekly close < $83.53 → targets $78.27, then $67–71; invalidation above $89.99.
• Sizing on weekly ATR; waiting one more weekly close for the triangle break is acceptable.

4. Analyst Ratings — Last 30 Days

Consensus: Bullish — 6 bullish, 1 bearish, 0 neutral across 7 ratings. 1 upgrade, 3 initiations, 3 reiterates/maintains.

Top Signals

• JP Morgan upgrades to Overweight, PT $120 → $125 (+4.2%) — Sep 24. Strongest ranked signal.
• Rothschild & Co initiates at Sell, PT $54 — Sep 21. Rare bearish initiation.
• UBS initiates Buy, PT $120 — Sep 23.
• Rosenblatt reiterates Buy, PT $250 — Sep 18, again Oct 1.
• Freedom Capital reiterates Buy, PT $151 — Sep 30; William Blair initiates Outperform (no PT) — Sep 30.

Takeaways

• Coverage is expanding fast (3 initiations in 2 weeks) — the Street is rushing to frame the AI-infrastructure story.
• Price-target dispersion is extreme: $54 to $250 against a last price of $88.57 — Rothschild implies −39%, Rosenblatt +182%. This is a conviction divide, not a consensus.
• Lagging-indicator caveat: the bullish cluster landed after price stabilized off the $78 lows — sentiment confirmation, not a catalyst.

5. Unusual Options Flow — Today (Oct 1, 50 trades)

Sentiment Overview — Bullish premium $11.15M (75.6%) vs bearish $3.60M (24.4%); net +$7.56M; ratio 3.10. But the headline is one trade: strip out the whale and today's remaining flow was ~23% bullish / 77% bearish.

Top Signals

1. $125C Jan-2028 block BUY — 5,000 contracts @ $20.20 = $10.10M, vs OI 742 → FRESH position. A single desk paying $10.1M for long-dated upside ~42% OTM. Dominates the tape; block execution suggests structured positioning (possibly a leg, not a naked bet).
2. $67.5P Jan-2027 block BUY — 3,500 contracts = $1.59M vs OI 2,302 → FRESH. Deep-OTM tail hedge on the bearish side.
3. $80P Nov-20 repeated buying — ≈$268K across 5+ repeats (OI 10,255): systematic put accumulation just below spot — downside protection/hedge zone.
4. $90C repeated SELLING across Oct 9/16 expiries — >$600K cumulative (OI 3,587–10,499): call-writing 1–3% above spot = ceiling bets. Plus far-dated call selling: $210C '28 ($74K), $100C '27, $135C '29.
5. $77.5P Jan-2027 SOLD sweep — $532K (size 626 vs OI 796, likely adjusting): institutions collecting premium expecting price to hold above $77.50 — a floor signal on the same contract where tail puts were bought.

Strike Clustering — $90 (heaviest two-way: call selling), $80 (put buying), $125 (whale call buy), $77.5–83 (put selling floors). Expiration Focus — Near-term Oct expiries: $90C income selling. Nov: $80P/$87.5C positioning. Jan 2027/2028: structural two-sided bets ($67.5P/$77.5P, $125C/$210C). Trade Character — Block-dominant (sweep share collapsed to 0.13): negotiated institutional positioning, minimal speculative urgency. Spot Context — Flow executed with spot $84.86→$88.49. $90 = overhead wall just above price; $80 = floor ~8% below; $125 = the 2028 upside marker.

Key Observations — (a) The $10.1M Jan-2028 $125C buy is the conviction trade of the day — fresh, whale-sized, long-dated. (b) Simultaneous put-buying below ($67.5–$80) and call-selling above ($90) = range-defining collar tape. (c) Big put buys may be hedges on long stock, not pure directional shorts — flag hedge-vs-speculation.

6. Money Flow Trend — Sep 17 → Oct 1 (11 trading days)

Trend Direction — strongSweepNet positive 6 of 11 days (+$2.17M on 9/18, +$1.99M on 9/23, +$912K on 9/29) with only minor negative days — mild net bullish urgency, flattening into today (−$23K). Bullish share oscillated violently: 26% → 78% → 34% → 71% → 76% — no persistent one-side control. Conviction Quality — Range totals: blocks $51.85M vs sweeps $47.25M — slightly institutional-dominant. Urgency faded all window (sweep share 0.72 → 0.13). Accumulation — repeatShare spiked 0.69–0.75 mid-window (systematic accumulation), fell to 0.08 today — now one-off whale trades dominate. Reversal Check + Technical Confirmation — Over the window, call-selling ($34.7M) exceeded call-buying ($28.7M) and put-selling ($25.4M) dwarfed put-buying ($10.2M). Call-sold dominance at $90–$105 = bearish reversal character (institutions betting $90+ is a ceiling) — and the chart confirms: price sits below daily Kijun $91.43, SMA200 $92.19, and the weekly cloud. Put-sold dominance at $75–$85 = bullish reversal character (floor building) — also confirmed: rising weekly lows $78.27 → $83.53. Flow and price agree: a bracket between roughly $78 and $92, not a trend. Concentration — 9/23: $9.23M call-selling across 21 trades (crowd consensus). Oct 1: $10.19M call-buying in 2 trades (whale). Character shifted from crowd to whale. Inflection Points — 9/18 bullish burst at the $78 bottom; 9/23 bearish flush (−$5.23M net); 9/24–9/29 heavy put-selling ($3.0M+ blocks repeatedly) while price recovered $84→$88; 10/1 whale upside positioning. Snapshot vs Trend — Range totals: 54.6% bullish (+$9.14M net) — mildly bullish snapshot; but the per-day trend is neutral-bracketing. The trend is the signal.

7. Quant Synthesis

Structure — Post-crash recovery coil: $138 → $60.55 → $117.49 → seven weeks of contraction, now $88.57 mid-range. Weekly lower highs + higher lows = triangle tightening; resolution is pending.

Bull evidence — Whale $10.1M fresh Jan-2028 $125C call block; put-selling floors at $77.5–$85; 6-of-7 bullish analyst consensus; weekly MACD histogram nearly zeroed; higher weekly lows; daily MACD histogram expanding 3 days.

Bear evidence — Below weekly SMA50 and cloud; repeated institutional call-selling at $90 (ceiling); 15% short float with beta 7.42 = violent, unstable tape; Rothschild's $54 target; unbroken lower-high sequence on weekly.

Key Levels — Support: $86.5–86.9 → $83.5 → $78.3. Resistance: $89.9–91.4 → $92.2–92.8 → $95.9 → $100.6. Magnet: $90 into October expiries (heaviest strike flow). The $125 whale strike is a 2028 marker, not a near-term magnet.

Bottom Line — Neutral bias with a mildly bullish undertone. Money flow is range-defining, not trend-confirming. The tape resolves on a daily close through $91.4–92.8 (bullish) or $86.5 (bearish); until then, mid-range positioning has no edge. A weekly MACD histogram flip positive would be the next high-conviction structural signal.